(image generated by DALL-E) 

Cycling one evening through Madrid’s city center, something caught my attention. A truck was parading on the Puerta de Alcala roundabout displaying on its cargo bed a brand new, sleekly designed Xiaomi electric vehicle [1]. The Chinese brand – founded in 2021 – just entered the Spanish market with a well polished marketing campaign. As a matter fact, Xiaomi is not alone: an attentive eye would have caught the many Chinese EV concessionaires burgeoning all over town: BYD, Voyah, Chery/Omoda, Lynk&co, Xpeng. Nearly all opened in the year 2023/2024. Even Madrid Public transport embraced this shift, purchasing 80 BYD electric buses [2]. Western car manufacturers are all scrambling to respond to such competition, wary of facing the same fate as Europe’s solar panel sector [3]. The accelerating adoption of greener alternatives on our roads is welcomed, but it begs the question whether this switch makes sense from an environmental standpoint?

Our goal as shortsighted earthians is not simply the electrification of our car fleet or improving carbon markets, but a complete systemic overhaul, to battle climate change head-on. EVs are not the silver bullet to fix the climate crisis, they are merely a tool in a larger climate action arsenal.  

To understand the limited impact of EVs, consider the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the EU passenger car industry. Transport accounts for 25% of total GHG emissions, with road transport comprising 72% of that share. Of this, passenger cars and motorcycles contribute 62%. In total, passenger cars – which is the main addressable market for the EV industry – is responsible for 11.5% of the total GHG emission in the EU [4], [5]. That figure goes up to 16% in the more car-dependent USA [6]. Additionally, the consequential pollution related to road infrastructure is already included in those numbers, which under a fully electrified passenger car fleet will not diminish, as road  building & maintenance, tire wear and other pollutants’ emission would remain similar [7]. Furthermore, EVs contribute significantly to greenhouse gas output. Upon arrival at the dealerships, EVs have emitted more GHG compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), due to the resource-hungry battery components [8]. 

Granted, depending on the country of manufacturing and usage, the life cycle GHG emissions of EVs compared to ICEVs are much lower: From 37% less GHG emissions for a car produced in China and used in Poland – with its dirtier coal power plants – to as much as 83% less for a Swedish produced EV driven in that very country. Those reductions in emissions are already a substantial improvement over our current ICEVs emissions, and are guaranteed to decrease further through continued battery innovations [9]. 

Yet these technological advancements – however beneficial they are to the environment – do not address the fundamental question: is the EV craze – which appears to be slowing significantly [10] – changing the status quo? 

With countries wielding tariff threats at one another and industry giants both blossoming (BYD) and fading (Volkswagen), the growing EV industry appears to be less about saving the environment and more about saving the car industry itself. 

Interstate competitiveness was and always will remain a major impediment to climate action, especially when competing companies are large national employers.

Unfortunately, this will only worsen as decoupling between economical blocks accelerate, even more so under a new Trump administration, which together with Milei’s Argentina have already pledged to withdraw their countries from COP talks [11]. Entangled in red-tapes, the regulatory lighthouse that once was the EU [12] is caught between a rock and a hard place: Trump’s USA which is likely to torpedo part of Biden’s green Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Environmental Protection Act (EPA) to the major polluters’ delight, and China’s coal-infused manufacturing – and subsidising – prowess.

“Band-aid” solutions such as mass passenger EV adoption or more recently geoengineering through cloud brightening [13] and carbon capture technologies [14] are not addressing structural problems, but kicking the can down the road, and to continue “business as usual”.

Right before the Baku COP29 conference in November 2024, a letter was published on the Club of Rome website outlining the insufficiencies of COP negotiations, claiming that “[COP] in its  current structure simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale” [15]. The signatories were not a cabal of lobbyists trying to influence policymakers, but rather leading experts and politicians including former Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon and the former UN climate chief Christina Figueres (who oversaw the formation of the Paris climate agreement). 

The only solution to tackle climate change: an international cooperation panel with this time, binding agreements. A new iteration of COPs would be needed to achieve our climate targets. Is the world of today and tomorrow ready for this cumbersome undertaking? We might have to wait until the current populism cycle fades [16], but will the Earth have this much patience? I am not sure I want the answer to that question.

In the midst of California’s uncontrollable wildfires and record breaking temperatures reached globally in 2024  [17], the EV industrial wrestling match seems awfully misplaced.   

Sources:

[1] El País. (n.d.). El coche de Xiaomi en España: Ya se puede ver en Madrid. Retrieved from https://motor.elpais.com/coches-electricos/coche-xiaomi-espana-ya-se-puede-ver-en-madrid/

[2] Autobuses y Autocares. (n.d.). EMT Madrid adjudica 100 autobuses eléctricos a BYD, Castrosua y Solaris. Retrieved from https://www.autobusesyautocares.com/texto-diario/mostrar/4663617/emt-madrid-adjudica-100-autobuses-electricos-byd-castrosua-solaris

[3] Global Energy Blog. (n.d.). Will the EU solar industry be left in the dark? Retrieved from https://www.globalenergyblog.com/will-the-eu-solar-industry-be-left-in-the-dark/

[4] European Parliament. (2019, March 13). CO2 emissions from cars: Facts and figures (infographics). Retrieved from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/en/article/20190313STO31218/co2-emissions-from-cars-facts-and-figures-infographics

[5] Eurostat. (2019). Energy consumption in households. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/digpub/energy/2019/bloc-4a.html

[6] Cato Institute. (2019, September 13). Blaming U.S. passenger vehicles for climate change: Ignorant but lucrative. Retrieved from https://www.cato.org/blog/blaming-us-passenger-vehicles-climate-change-ignorant-lucrative-

[7] ScienceDirect. (2020). Environmental impact assessment of electric vehicles in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 258, 120775. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652620333217

[8] Cotes. (n.d.). Life-cycle GHG emissions of an EV compared to an ICEV. Retrieved from https://www.cotes.com/blog/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-ev-vs-ice-vehicles

[9] Euronews. (2023, October 29). From manufacture to lifetime emissions: Just how green are EVs compared to petrol or diesel? Retrieved from https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/10/29/from-manufacture-to-lifetime-emissions-just-how-green-are-evs-compared-to-petrol-or-diesel

[10] Goldman Sachs. (n.d.). Why are EV sales slowing? Retrieved from https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-are-ev-sales-slowing

[11] The Guardian. (2024, November 13). Argentina withdraws negotiators from Cop29 summit. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/13/argentina-withdraws-negotiators-from-cop29-summit

[12] Financial Times. (2020, January 24). The Brussel effect . Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/82219772-3eaa-11ea-b232-000f4477fbca

[13] Financial Times. (2023, October 15). China’s electric vehicle makers face European tariffs. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/cd88bf71-97ca-4142-88c8-3a5819ce81b7

[14] Financial Times. (2024, November 10). CCS could be a dangerous distraction. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/partnercontent/gas-outlook/ccs-could-be-a-dangerous-distraction.htm

[15] Club of Rome. (2024, November 15). Open Letter on COP reform to All States that are Parties to the Convention. Retrieved from https://www.clubofrome.org/cop-reform-2024/

[16] Clean Energy Wire. (2024, June 7). Right-wing populists challenge Europe’s climate efforts. Retrieved from https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/right-wing-populists-challenge-europes-climate-efforts

[17] NASA. (2024). Temperatures rising: NASA confirms 2024 as warmest year on record. Retrieved from https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/temperatures-rising-nasa-confirms-2024-warmest-year-on-record/