(fighting for the throne, GPT, 2025)

Bold statement. I am not predicting a private jet mysteriously falling from the sky, but as more material emerges about Musk’s DOGE team wreaking havoc on U.S. institutions, a familiar pattern begins to surface – one that eerily resembles the trajectory of Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Both men are unofficial officials of their respective states, wielding influence and power that rival the very rulers who enabled their rise. Each became an unelected extension of government power – Prigozhin with literal weapons and soldiers, Musk with immense corporate might and wealth.

For over a decade and a half, Prigozhin operated in the shadows, executing the Kremlin’s orders without question. Yet, his position emboldened him to take an increasingly defiant stance, directly contradicting the commands of those who knighted him. His breaking point? The Kremlin’s failure to provide Wagner with adequate support while it was thrown into one of the most brutal battlefields since World War I – Bakhmut. That, coupled with the sheer incompetence of Russia’s Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu (and, of course, Putin himself), led him to believe he could challenge the state head-on.    

His downfall – both figuratively and literally – came when he overestimated his strength when marching towards Moscow, despite commanding an estimated 20,000 to 50,000 soldiers in Ukraine alone. He also succumbed to the most corrupting force of all: power.

Now, transpose that to Musk. Strip away Putin, Russia, and the war in Ukraine (I know, that’s a lot to discard), and the parallels are striking.

Following the 2024 election, polls flooded social media, speculating how long the relationship between Trump and Musk would last. A third of Americans predicted a fallout before 2029, and early cracks in their alliance are already showing.

One of the biggest points of contention? Trump’s tariff war. His aggressive economic protectionism directly conflicts with Musk’s business empire, particularly Tesla, which relies on international supply chains. Another brewing rift is Trump’s promise to dismantle Biden’s green transition policies, policies from which Musk has massively benefited, particularly through generous subsidies for EV buyers.

These are just a few examples in a sea of conflicts that have emerged in the past three weeks. Some are trivial – like Musk’s annoying omnipresence at Mar-a-Lago – while others are far more serious, such as his unfiltered embrace of far-right leaders and toxic figures across Europe.

On this imaginary “trivial-to-serious” scale, I’m at a loss as to where to place his N(azi)ervous salute during the inauguration – if anyone even remembers that event.

The same dangerous pattern emerges: the fate of two powerful, egotistical, overconfident, wannabe despots colliding at lightspeed. Predicting the exact catalyst for Musk’s downfall is difficult, especially when news from the White House is being produced at an industrial scale, muddying the waters.

However, if history is any guide, we don’t need to look far for a precedent. A quick flip through a Russian history book – all the way back to the late 1990s – offers a chilling lesson.

The once all-powerful oligarchs of Russia believed they could control and manage the newly elected Putin. Look what happened to them. Money and influence can get you far, but they mean little when you’re up against the full force of the state apparatus (or facing a 30-meter fall from a window).

Sources:

Beale, J. (2022, December 22). Russia-supporting Wagner Group mercenary numbers soar. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64050719

Smith, D. (2025, February 9). ‘They will collide eventually’: How long will the Trump-Musk relationship survive?. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/09/trump-musk-relationship

Russian businessman close to Putin mysteriously dies after falling from window. (2025, February 10). Daily Mail. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13981611/Russian-businessman-close-Putin-mysteriously-dies-falling-window.html